Loading…
Free EV calculator
Multiply your chance of winning by what the bet pays, then take off your chance of losing times the stake. Per dollar staked it is your chance times the decimal price, minus 1. Positive means the price is above your fair price. Enter the price, your stake and your chance below.
Expected value calculator
Expected value
+$5.00
EV per dollar staked
+5.00%
Fair price
2.00
Implied chance
47.62%
Edge
+2.38 pts
At a 50.0% chance, a fair price is 2.00, so 2.10 is above it. The expected value is positive, and it is only as good as your chance of winning.
18+. Arithmetic on the prices you enter, not a tip or a prediction. Prices can move, and bets can be limited or voided, before both are placed. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.
The live version
BetBank picks lists positive EV bets across Australian bookmakers with the edge shown on each, so you are not estimating the chance by hand.
Worked example. $100 at 2.10 with a 50% chance of winning: 0.50 x $100 x 1.10 = $55.00 expected to be won, minus 0.50 x $100 = $50.00 expected to be lost, so +$5.00, or +5.00% per dollar staked. The fair price for a 50% chance is 2.00, so 2.10 is above it. The same chance at 1.90 is -$5.00.
What it assumes. That your chance of winning is right. Expected value is an average over many bets: any one bet wins or loses, and a small edge needs a long run of bets to show. The calculator cannot tell you the chance. A fair price from a sharp market with the margin removed is a common starting point (see the no-vig calculator).
18+. These calculators do arithmetic on the numbers you enter; they are not tips or predictions. Gambling can be harmful. For free, confidential help call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 or visit our responsible gambling page.
Positive expected value means that, if your chance of winning is right, the bet pays more on average than it costs. It does not mean the bet will win. A positive EV bet still loses more often than not when the price is long.
That is the hard part, and the calculator cannot supply it. Many bettors take a sharp bookmaker or exchange price and remove its margin to get a fair chance, then look for a price elsewhere that is above the fair price.
Staking $100 a bet at 5% EV averages $5 a bet, or $5,000 over 1,000 bets, but the spread around that average is wide, so a few dozen bets say very little.
Implied probability is what the price says the chance is. EV compares that with the chance you believe. If your chance is higher than the implied one, the EV is positive.
Related tools